The Canadian Real Estate Association is predicting that the sale of homes listed through the Multiple Listing Service will drop by more than 11 percent this year, and by another 4 percent in 2009.
The CREA says Saskatchewan & Newfoundland are the only two provinces which will see an increase in home sales this year, and it says the biggest drop in home sales will take place in Alberta.
The CREA is predicting that house prices will continue to slowly rise across the country, with the biggest increase coming in Saskatchewan, with an expected increase of 19.3 percent. Compare that with Alberta's expected increase of 4.7 percent.
Manitoba is expected to lead the nation in price increases in 2009.
You can read more on the CREA report in this CBC Article.
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9 comments:
Real Estate in Saskatchewan should double within the next couple of years.
Haven't prices doubled already? I will believe that when I see it. But if it happens, you will see more people leaving the province again, rather than coming back to it. I will be one of them.
I think so too. So many people want to move here. Supply and demand.
I think a $500k house today will be worth $750k in less than 12 months
In province migration has slowed dramatically.
There is a 2 year high of listings in Saskatoon.
70% of respondents in SK said now is not a good time to buy a new house.
I have seen listing prices drop on 2 houses in my area by $40,000 (9 - 10%) in 1 month.
The price drop in Edmonton and Calgary has worried out of province owners and they are starting to divest of their SK holdings.
There is a glut of condos now, with hundreds near completion. Once the speculators realize they can't sell them for enough of a profit, they will rent them. This will quickly bump up the vacancy rates and drive down rents.
CMHC had predicted that Saskatoon and Edmonton had price increases that significantly outpaced the 10 year average and therefore were poised to see the most dramatic decreases. This is starting to happen now in Edmonton.
Saskatoon's population increased about 7% in the past 10 years, Calgary's by 32%. That is a real demand for housing, therefore justified price increases.
With 40 year mortgages and low or nothing downpayments, almost anyone can qualify to purchase a home. As property taxes, fuel and food costs increase, the continued ability to finance the mortgage becomes increasingly difficult. Expect to see foreclosures with the taxpayer funding the CMCH losses.
I predict that within 2 years, the prices of houses in Saskatoon will be 20% less than today, but your real estate agent will tell you it's only a "paper loss" much like the stock market.
I am not one of the bitter people, who can't afford a house, I paid cash for a new house a year ago. I'm sitting on cash and may get back into the rental market in a couple of years, depending on the quality of renters and the price of condos.
I do not think it drop but I also do not think it will double in 1 year. I am an expert and my opinion is worth mroe than anybody elses really. My opinion states that about 15% increase during the year 2008 in average home price from Jan 1st 2008 to Dec31 2008. This will occur also in 2009 at ~12.5% and 2010 at about 7% stabalizing in 2011
these are truth. your argument is invalid.
3 Anonymous's?
At least the second backs up with reasons and compares Sask's slowing migration.
The Royal Bank and Vancouver Sun agree with Anonymous #2, predicting Saskatoon and Regina to go from hot to "NOT" soon.
Anonymous 2 predicts speculators will realize they can't make money with all the condos on the market and will rent instead,
I agree to a point, I think speculators will realize they can't make any more money and will try to sell now, at the peak, to maximize profit! This will drive prices down for those who don't sell soon enough.
And retirees in Saskatoon will likely begin to sell off houses, trying to cash in near the peak prices, as retirement destinations like Florida and Arizona are now affordable, and weren't years ago.
So: Media/RBC says we're NOT hot
Weakening migration (after ONE year of moderate growth)
Alberta Advantage is back with higher wages and lower taxes, and now, some Alberta housing is cheaper ...
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=15b7dec7-1936-4081-8ca9-029cb6238856
I'd say all points to DECREASED Saskatchewan demand, decreased housing prices in Saskatoon/Regina and a RETURN of out migration to higher wages/lower taxes/lower crime in Alberta
Actual RBC report, link to report and quote, here's what RBC economist Amy Goldbloom had to say:
“Saskatchewan jumped into the spotlight in 2007 as a commodity-led expansion attracted an influx of migrants and led to a major housing boom. Regina and Saskatoon continue to clock year-over-year price gains that are several multiples above the pace of their local wage growth. This lends evidence that the current momentum is unsustainable, with a similar fate to Alberta’s likely for both of these cities within a years time.”
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf
Hi Dougy,
Just out of curiosity, what is it that you do, and why always so negative on Saskatchewan?
Billy
Billy,
Sask had a relatively strong economy for over a decade and no one cared, prices were stagnant, then a couple years of really unfounded growth because the news says "we're booming" and suddenly prices double over night. I just can't stand people who are willing to accept doubling house prices for really the same strong, yet slow/steady economy we've had for years because TV told them it's okay. And all this potential was all we've had for years. And population boom? Regina had 180,400 people in 1996 and 179,246 in 2006. It would need to grow over a half percent just to meet it's old population. How the heck can't we keep up with that "booming" growth house wise?
It just bugs me, because we should have been growing before a bit, now we should be growing a bit more (higher gas) but some how we are outpacing Edmonton (lower prices) which has more/better oil reserves and our wages are still way lower. Next will be another 20 years of stagnation at best, crash at worst, then a year of "oh shucks guess we're in a boom".
All you hear about in the media is the "boom" they ignore all stories that would question the boom, including far sub par GDP growth and now RBC's prediction house prices will fall, and the "boom" keeps on going. Why can't people have a more long term balanced approach to our economy and stop basing their opinion on the news?
I guess seeing all those pro boom predictions is good for the brain wash.
I'd rather a justified correction now, than a full out crash in a year if prices continue to climb.
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